UK Sports Betting Tips Podcast

**James Dooley says**
So Joe, when a trainer is in form and you start looking at the stats for in-form yards, does this influence you when choosing a horse to tip?

**Joe Norris says**
Definitely. For me, a trainer in form is more important than the jockey. If you can catch a trainer on the crest of a wave, they’re worth following. I also like looking at specific trainers at certain tracks. And then you’ve got things like Paul Nicholls vaccinating his horses in January, which is key because he goes out of form as a result. It all links together. It’s definitely a factor you have to consider.

**James Dooley says**
Yeah, it’s crazy. Some yards just cannot get winners. They can have four or five favourites in a row and all of them get beat. It’s always something we look for when trying to find value in the betting market. If a trainer is out of form, even if the horse had strong form months ago, we might lay it. On the flip side, backing horses from in-form yards is always appealing. You can get bad hay, vaccinations, all sorts of reasons for yards going cold. I always look at in-form trainers, for sure.

**Joe Norris says**
I’ve got a question for you. If you’ve got a horse in your tracker and you’re waiting for it to run, then on the day you see the trainer hasn’t had a winner for 15 days, would that put you off backing it?

**James Dooley says**
It would definitely put me off. Then I’d look at the betting market. I always ask myself: is this horse going to outrun its odds? If it’s a seven-to-four favourite and I had it down as a seven-to-two shot, then no, I won’t back it. But if it’s 16-to-1 and I think it can outrun a 16-to-1 price, then yeah, I’d still do it.

If it's four or five to one and I thought it should be seven-to-two with the trainer in form, I’d be less confident. There are loads of other factors too: ground, jockey booking, track record. But for me it always comes back to value. If it’s 10-1 or 16-1, fine. If it’s three or four to one and I think it should be that price anyway, the trainer being out of form might put me off.

**Joe Norris says**
So you’d let it run at that price?

**James Dooley says**
Yeah, I normally let it run… and then it wins, and I’m like, what are you doing? But that’s racing and betting for you.

**Joe Norris says**
Exactly.