UK Sports Betting Tips Podcast

**James Dooley:** Football betting tips. Today I’m joined with Joe Norris from Get Your Tips Out, who also has his own website, which is joenorristips.co.uk. And in today’s episode of the UK Sports Betting Tips podcast, I want to dig a little bit deeper in specifically how you choose your football predictions.

**Joe Norris:** Yeah. So, are we, should we rank these straight away? Or talk about a few different factors, then what I can try to do is get your one, two, three, four in order for what influences who you’re going to choose to win the game.

**James Dooley:** Let’s name a few of the different factors and then I want your one, two, three, four in order.

**Joe Norris:** We start off with the obvious ones. Team form is definitely a big thing, how they’re playing, recent results. Another one is the squad. Injuries. If a team’s injury-ridden, it doesn’t matter if you’re Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man United. If you’re injury-ridden and you’ve got your B team out, you could lose to anyone. A big one for me as well is motivation. If you’ve got a derby, like Liverpool versus Everton, Everton are raising their game two or threefold against Liverpool because it means so much to them.

A lot like with horse racing, everything has to come back to price. So value would have to be, without spoiling it, my number one because everything comes back to price. An injury-ridden team are going to be a bigger price, so you have to weigh that up and think, is there a chance their second-choice striker can still play well? Are they too big a price? It always comes back to price. I don’t think I’ve really missed anything. Have you got anything to add?

**James Dooley:** I’d expand on team news, selection and formation. Sometimes lower league teams set up very defensively against a higher league team, so it might be low scoring where the top side win 2-0 or 3-0 because the bottom side sit in a back five. But when they play someone close to them, they need to win and they go more attacking, so the game opens up.

It’s not just about who wins. Some people want over 2.5 goals or both teams to score. I’m never going to back a lower league side to score against a higher league team if they’re sitting in a back five. Little things like that matter. Price dictates everything. I’m trying to find value where I think it could be an open game and a side wins, so I might do both teams to score and a team to win.

Before we get going, in order, what’s your one, two, three, four?

Also, what bets do you like? Both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, correct scores, what are you doing?

**Joe Norris:** A lot of the time I like a double or a treble. That could be win, draw, lose and then I look at both teams to score and build a double or treble out of that.

What you just said is basically head to head. I think it’s really important to look at recent head to heads between the two teams. Has it produced goals? Is it the same situation? Do both teams have their strongest team out? Things like that.

**James Dooley:** Right, let’s dig into it. What is the most influential factor when you’re doing your football betting tips?

**Joe Norris:** Number one would be value. Exactly the same as racing because everything comes back to the price. If you’re backing both teams to score but everyone’s backing both teams to score and the price is too short, you’re not going to win long term because you’re not getting any value. You’ve not got an edge over anyone else.

That’s the hardest thing with football, finding that edge over other people. With racing it gives you more opportunities to find that edge. But there’s still definitely money to be made. So value is number one.

Number two would be recent form. If they’ve been playing well and free scoring, that has to be number two.

**James Dooley:** Recent form is key. It sounds obvious, but it matters. When a striker is confident, it makes a massive difference. If he’s scored in his last game or last few, he’s full of confidence and he hits things instinctively. When he goes on a drought, he starts second guessing, whether to pass, whether to shoot. Confidence is huge for strikers.

Sorry, I’ve stopped you in your tracks.

**Joe Norris:** No, that’s true. If a team is struggling to score goals, they automatically become more defensive because they know conceding one goal could mean they lose the game. The impact shouldn’t be underestimated. So recent form has to be number two. What’s your number three then?

**Joe Norris:** Number three is where you can argue over it. I’d personally say motivation. You could have Chelsea, Liverpool at home on a Saturday, Stamford Bridge packed, everyone’s up for it, we put in a great performance, we win 2-1. Everyone’s buzzing. Then we go to Leeds midweek and get stuffed 3-1. That is motivation. That is the players’ mindset not being right.

**James Dooley:** That’s such a weak mindset from players. For me, I play football myself. Friendly or training, I’m doing everything I can to win. I want to win every game. I get that a derby raises it, but if I’m playing away at Leeds and I’m a professional footballer, I’m doing everything I can.

**Joe Norris:** You can’t tell me your motivation level is consistent every game.

**James Dooley:** Baseline motivation should always be at a respectable level.

**Joe Norris:** Trust me, these overpaid footballers, it isn’t. You see it all the time. Derbies like Everton, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal. Those are the games where you really see players want to win because they know what it means to the fans.

**James Dooley:** I get why you’re saying it. What’s your number four?

**Joe Norris:** You’ve changed my mind on this. Number four has got to be rest time. It was going to be squad, but I think rest time is even more important. If they’ve played in Europe midweek then have a game on Saturday and they get beat, everyone says they’re tired from Europe, but I do think it’s a big factor.

**James Dooley:** Just look at teams that get Champions League then come fifth or sixth the next year. They drop down because they’re playing midweek and they’ve probably not got a deep enough squad. The starting eleven is great, but the squad isn’t deep. When they bring on subs, they’re not at the level. Rest time is big.

For number three I’d have team news and formation. Head to heads is huge too.

**Joe Norris:** It depends what bet you’re having. If I’m having both teams to score, head to head is something I check before anything else. I want to see how they’ve played against each other.

**James Dooley:** And head to head is not just previous years. Managers make decisions too. Second in the league playing fifth bottom, big Champions League game midweek, so they rest four or five players. Managers go in thinking this is a game we should win and it’s the wrong mindset. They weaken the team, and that striker or midfielder isn’t confident.

**Joe Norris:** Without a doubt. It has a knock-on effect on other players. If one of the best players is rested it weakens the quality and it spreads through the team. I agree. It’s a big one.

**James Dooley:** I wanted a debate to throw you under the bus, but it’s probably a bad question to ask in strict order. It should be everything amalgamated together. It gives you the output of saying this is value. There’s loads of other factors too, like travel. If they’ve got a four-hour drive, played Thursday in Europe, then Saturday afternoon, that matters.

But the bet you’re having matters too. Different markets change which factors matter most. For goals, certain things are more important. For the win, other things are more important.

**Joe Norris:** Completely agree.

**James Dooley:** Anyone watching this, it’s going to be syndicated out to the UK Sports Betting Tips podcast. It’ll also be on Joe Norris’ YouTube channel and on Get Your Tips Out as well. If you want more information like this, make sure you subscribe, both to the YouTube channel and the UK Sports Betting Tips podcast.